San Francisco → Austin

Tax basis: single filer. Main-earner breakdown in Austin: Federal $21.4K · State (TX) $0 · FICA (Social Security + Medicare) $10.3K.

The crossover salary for this route is $118.5K — below it, the move loses money over 10 years; your current offer clears it by $15.7K.

In a negotiation, anything above $118.5K is rational to accept on pure money grounds; the cushion is your room to trade salary for other terms (equity, remote days, start date) without flipping the verdict.

Each bar shows how far the 10-year outcome moves if that input turns out one step worse (left) or better (right) than assumed.

Cautious/optimistic move the offer by $11.0K, monthly spend by $500, savings rate by 5pp, and returns by 1pp — together, not one at a time.

Read this line carefully: the cautious case flips this move negative. The verdict is real but not robust — the negotiation numbers in section 03 are how you buy margin.

Waiting one year costs you $6.7K of the advantage: your 10-year lead shrinks from $41.7K to $35.0K.

Assumes an equivalent offer is still available after the delay, grown at your raise rate — real offers expire, so treat delays as re-negotiations.

Estimates are labeled at the source level and never presented as official statistics. This dossier is a decision model, not financial advice; confirm material numbers (your offer, your lease, your filing status) before acting.